Oscars season is upon us, and while the precursor awards have shared many of the same winners (“Barbenheimer,” anyone?), the nominations have been a little more varied. Although it’s pretty easy to tell who will win each category, figuring out who might be nominated alongside those perceived frontrunners is much more unpredictable.
Below, we give our Oscar nomination predictions for what will be nominated in some of the top categories at this year’s Academy Awards: Best Picture, Best Director, Best Actor, Best Actress, Best Supporting Actor, Best Supporting Actress, and Best Animated Film.
Best Picture Oscar Nomination Predictions
Right now, Best Picture seems to be divided into two groups: eight relatively safe films and a bunch of contenders looking for the last two spots.
Right now, the leading contenders seem to be Oppenheimer, Killers of the Flower Moon, The Holdovers, Poor Things, Barbie, Past Lives, Maestro, and American Fiction.
The last two spots are seemingly a crapshoot. The precursors imply that the final two spots would be Anatomy of a Fall and The Zone of Interest. However, May December and Saltburn are also potential spoilers in the Best Picture race if their viral popularity was enough to push them onto voters’ radar.
- Oppenheimer
- Killers of the Flower Moon
- The Holdovers
- Poor Things
- Barbie
- Past Lives
- Maestro
- American Fiction
- Anatomy of a Fall
- The Zone of Interest
Upsets: May December; Saltburn
Best Director Oscar Nomination Predictions
The Best Director race is shaping to be among the more interesting in this year’s Oscars conversation. Of course, there is the presumed frontrunner, Christopher Nolan, whose Oppenheimer seems destined to sweep many of the year’s awards. Also likely safe are Martin Scorsese (Killers of the Flower Moon) and Yorgos Lanthimos (Poor Things), who have the support of both above-the-line and below-the-line groups.
We expect the five nominees to be rounded out by Alexander Payne (The Holdovers) and Greta Gerwig (Barbie). However, either one could be unseated by the international contenders, Jonathan Glazer (The Zone of Interest) and Justine Triet (Anatomy of a Fall), both of whom have significant European support.
- Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer
- Martin Scorsese, Killers of the Flower Moon
- Yorgos Lanthimos, Poor Things
- Alexander Payne, The Holdovers
- Greta Gerwig, Barbie
Upsets: Jonathan Glazer, The Zone of Interest; Justine Triet, Anatomy of a Fall
Best Actor Oscar Nomination Predictions
Like many other categories, Best Actor seems to have three locks, with the final players battling it out for the last two spots. Cillian Murphy (Oppenheimer), Paul Giamatti (The Holdovers), and Bradley Cooper (Maestro) all seem like pretty clear shoo-ins for the nomination.
For the final two spots, it seems to be a race between Jeffrey Wright (American Fiction), Colman Domingo (Rustin), and Leonardo DiCaprio (Killers of the Flower Moon), with Andrew Scott (All of Us Strangers) as a long-shot dark horse. Right now, we have Wright and Domingo rounding out the five, but don’t be surprised if someone sneaks in come nominations morning.
- Cillian Murphy, Oppenheimer
- Paul Giamatti, The Holdovers
- Bradley Cooper, Maestro
- Jeffrey Wright, American Fiction
- Colman Domingo, Rustin
Upsets: Leonardo DiCaprio, Killers of the Flower Moon; Andrew Scott, All of Us Strangers
Best Actress Oscar Nomination Predictions
The four apparent locks in the best actress race are Lily Gladstone (Killers of the Flower Moon), Emma Stone (Poor Things), Carey Mulligan (Maestro), and Sandra Hüller (Anatomy of a Fall). However, a few performers are currently duking it out for that last spot.
Right now, we’re putting in Fantasia Barrino (The Color Purple) despite her missing the critical precursor of the SAG Awards. However, we could just as easily see one of the other SAG nominees — Margot Robbie (Barbie) or Annette Bening (NYAD) — round out the batch.
Some would tell you that Greta Lee (Past Lives) is also in the running, but after missing SAG and with little below-the-line support for the film, that seems unlikely.
- Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon
- Emma Stone, Poor Things
- Carey Mulligan, Maestro
- Sandra Hüller, Anatomy of a Fall
- Fantasia Barrino, The Color Purple
Upsets: Margot Robbie, Barbie; Annette Bening, NYAD
Best Supporting Actor Oscar Nomination Predictions
Best Supporting Actor similarly has few variables. The top three are Robert Downey Jr. (Oppenheimer), Ryan Gosling (Barbie), and Robert De Niro (Killers of the Flower Moon). The presumed fourth contender, Charles Melton (May December), did have his security threatened by a miss at SAG, but he probably won’t miss at the Academy.
The only question that remains seems to be whether Willem Dafoe or Mark Ruffalo gets the nod for Poor Things. We’re projecting Dafoe right now, but it could go the other way. There is also a world where both get in, and Melton does not. Sterling K. Brown (American Fiction) has entered the race as a dark horse, but seems unlikely to make a splash against the favorites.
- Robert Downey Jr., Oppenheimer
- Ryan Gosling, Barbie
- Robert De Niro, Killers of the Flower Moon
- Charles Melton, May December
- Willem Dafoe, Poor Things
Upsets: Mark Ruffalo, Poor Things; Sterling K. Brown, American Fiction
Best Supporting Actress Oscar Nomination Predictions
Of all the major races, Best Supporting Actress seems absolutely locked up. The top five seem to be Da’Vine Joy Randolph (The Holdovers), Emily Blunt (Oppenheimer), Danielle Brooks (The Color Purple), Julianne Moore (May December), and Jodie Foster (NYAD). If there is to be an upset, it would be America Ferrera (Barbie), but she doesn’t seem likely to disrupt.
- Da’Vine Joy Randolph, The Holdovers
- Emily Blunt, Oppenheimer
- Danielle Brooks, The Color Purple
- Julianne Moore, May December
- Jodie Foster, NYAD
Upsets: America Ferrera, Barbie
Best Animated Feature Oscar Nomination Predictions
Best Animated Feature tends to be one of the more frustrating races at the Oscars since voters tend to go with the mainstream picks over more idiosyncratic choices. However, there is a possibility that Disney will get shut out of the category entirely.
Right now, we think the five leaders are Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse, Nimona, The Boy and the Heron, Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem, and Elemental. However, Wish, The Super Mario Bros. Movie, or Suzume could take one of the slots.
- Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
- Nimona
- The Boy and the Heron
- Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem
- Elemental
Upsets: Wish; The Super Mario Bros. Movie; Suzume
What do you think? Do you agree with our Oscar nomination predictions, or do you expect other movies to get the nominations? Let us know in the comments below!
Also Read: The Holdovers TIFF Review: Alexander Payne’s Return to Form Has Great Acting, Lackluster Script
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